Inside the Numbers

The key to Bob McDonnell’s nearly 18-point win over Creigh Deeds last Tuesday was the Republican’s success in the counties and municipalities of Northern Virginia. Deeds’ inability to secure large victories in these areas spelled his doom statewide. Virginia has sixteen counties or municipalities with populations of at least 100,000. Such jurisdictions are typically considered Democratic strongholds, dominated by either affluent and educated whites or minority groups. In fact, Barack Obama won 12 of the 16 counties or municipalities in question. Comparing the 2009 map with the 2008 map, however, we find that McDonnell captured 9 of the 16. Let’s take a closer look:

Rank/Name	’09 Result	’08 Result	Change
1. Fairfax	51-49 McDonnell	61-39 Obama	+10 Republican
2. Virginia Beach	64-36 McDonnell	50-49 McCain	+13.5 Republican
3. Prince William	59-41 McDonnell	58-42 Obama	+17 Republican
4. Chesterfield	66-34 McDonnell	53-46 McCain	+12.5 Republican
5. Henrico	56-44 McDonnell	56-44 Obama	+12 Republican
6. Loudoun	61-39 McDonnell	54-45 Obama	+15.5 Republican
7. Norfolk	60-40 Deeds	71-28 Obama	+11.5 Republican
8. Chesapeake	60-40 McDonnell	50-49 Obama	+10.5 Republican
9. Arlington	66-34 Deeds	72-27 Obama	+6.5 Republican
10. Richmond	69-31 Deeds	79-20 Obama	+10.5 Republican
11. Newport News	50-50 Deeds	64-35 Obama	+14.5 Republican
12. Hampton	58-42 Deeds	69-30 Obama	+11.5 Republican
13. Alexandria	63-37 Deeds	72-27 Obama	+9.5 Republican
14. Stafford	68-32 McDonnell	53-46 McCain	+14.5 Republican
15. Spotsylvania	69-31 McDonnell	53-46 McCain	+14 Republican
16. Portsmouth	60-40 Deeds	70-30 Obama	+10 Republican

Fairfax, Prince William and Loudoun are in bold because McDonnell’s performances in these counties were particularly noteworthy. Obama won these counties by an average of 16 points. One year later, McDonnell won all three by an average of 14 points. Moreover, while Norfolk, Arlington, Richmond, Newport News, Hampton, Alexandria and Portsmouth were Deeds victories, Democrats did not perform to their 2008 level. On average, John McCain won only 28% of the vote in these counties or cities. McDonnell improved this statistic to 39%.

National Republicans must be elated that their gubernatorial candidate held four counties, flipped five and enhanced the Republican brand in seven others.

And the GOP is back!

First and foremost, congratulations to Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling, Ken Cuccinelli and all of the other victorious Republicans yesterday!  What a different feeling 2009 has to it than 2008 did — thank goodness!

What a pretty picture this is!

The headlines today are glorious and I am excited to see such victories for the GOP … particularly in VA.

Just a year ago I recall many Democrats commenting on how the “GOP is dead” and “won’t make a comeback for years” … hmm.  365 days later and here we are! 

These races have been watched closely as an indicator of the Obama administration and while exit polls varied in the number that suggested Obama’s performance (or lack thereof) helped to guide their vote — Virginia seems to be the most clear voice in that debate.  And it appears that Virginians aren’t happy with the “hope” and “change” rhetoric of Obama’s campaign that hasn’t translated the way they anticipated to the administration. 

The biggest hope I have is that this victory in 2009 helps to bring the GOP back in a BIG way in 2010. 

CONGRATS BOB!  We’re proud supporters today!!

We Win!

In a somewhat anticlimactic finish, Bob McDonnell has been declared the winner of the 2009 Virginia gubernatorial race.

Results are still coming in, but Bob is currently leading 60%-40% with 86% of precincts reporting.

Stay tuned for more details!

The Moment of Truth

With less than four hours to go until the polls close in Virginia, all eyes are on governor’s race. The Virginia gubernatorial contest is ground zero for the possible rebirth of the Republican Party in the state. After years of writing Virginia off as a solid red state, the Democrats have won an array of statewide elections over the last decade. On a larger scale, and in tandem with the New Jersey governor’s race and the special election in the 23rd House District of New York,  McDonnell’s campaign could be the centerpiece in a string of victories for Republicans. Only one year after Barack Obama routed John McCain in the general election, I am proud to have covered the campaign of a man who appears in the vanguard of Republican revival.

Here’s a final prediction: 55% for McDonnell and 45% for Deeds

Since Obama won with 53% of Virginia’s voters in 2008, we must assume that a fair number of the president’s supporters will vote for McDonnell today. Why? The answer, to me, lies in the fact that Virginians value Bob’s independent outlook and his refusal to conform to stereotypes typically attached to Republicans running for office. Obama was rewarded in the Old Dominion last year because he came across as a new type of Democrat, one who was free from the ugly battles of the 1990s and early 2000s. He was fresh, eloquent and sensible. Upon entering the White House, however, Obama allowed congressional liberals to set the policy tone and initiated more federal spending. McDonnell, in essence, represents a counterweight to Obama’s disappointing performance.

Republicans always focus on lower taxes, security and family values. While McDonnell spoke on such issues, he wisely built his campaign on creating jobs, improving quality and choice in schools and tackling the state’s transportation problems. His commanding lead is evidence of his ability to paint himself as both the tough and caring candidate. Bob simply left no room for Creigh Deeds; he was aggressive from start to end.

Do your civic duty and vote!

Another clip from Bob’s election day:

On a final note, what in the world is Jim Moran talking about?

At a get-out-the-vote rally in Fairfax County, Moran said: “I mean, if the Republicans were running in Afghanistan, they’d be running on the Taliban ticket as far as I can see.”

Moran was talking about Republicans Robert F. McDonnell for governor, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and state Sen. Kenneth T. Cuccinelli II, who is running for attorney general. By some accounts, the three represent the most conservative Republican ticket to run in Virginia in many years. Moran’s comments clearly were aimed to motivate Democratic voters to turn out on Tuesday and vote blue.

If that’s what the Democrats have to do to get people out to vote, they are in deep trouble.

Now Go Make A Difference

Bob voted….and so should you!

Where do you vote?

Election Day Eve

On the Eve of Election Day 2009, all the buzz seems to be about Bob McDonnell and the big victory he is expected to have in Virginia.

While I am confident in the McDonnell for Governor campaign and Bob’s ability to be victorious tomorrow, it is a bit worrisome to see people’s attitude towards the election.  I am slightly concerned that voters are so sure Bob will win, that they won’t come out to the polls.  Also, with it being an off year for elections — compared to all of the  hype last year — there isn’t near the amount of talk and excitement leading up to the election.  I just hope that enough Bob supporters show up to the polls tomorrow! 

I personally am excited and will be casting my vote for Bob first thing in the morning!  Hopefully by this time tomorrow we’ll be celebrating a victory for the Republican ticket.  Happy Election Day Eve!

Lucky Number 13

Now we all know that polls don’t win elections, BUT… this week Bob McDonnell opened up a thirteen point lead over opponent  Creigh Deeds. This is poll significant not because McDonnell leads by a substantial amount, but because it continues McDonnell’s upward trend that began a few weeks ago. The poll released on October 13 had McDonnell up by seven; now it’s almost double that (and that’s after President Obama came out for Deeds).  I think the reason that Virginia voters are climbing aboard the McDonnell train is because they can trust him. Even more significant than  McDonnell’s 13-point lead in the polls is his 10-point lead in the trust of voters when it comes to the issues that are most important to them: transportation and taxes.

This ad by the Republican Party of Virginia does an excellent job of summing up the difference between McDonnell and Deeds.  The voters trust McDonnell on the issues because McDonnell is talking about the issues. Deed’s negative campaign is unimportant to  51% of voters.

Over the next few days McDonnell’s challenge is to transform trust into votes. Like I said before, polls are not election predictors.  This election day think of the issues that matter most to you and your family and then go out cast your vote, help  translate numbers into results!